Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by about 2 points in the Texas Senate race, according to new polls from Marist and the University of Houston. Both margins are within the polls' error ranges, so the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn remains a statistical toss-up two weeks before the November 3 election.
That alone is unusual in Texas, which has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Paxton, the state attorney general, beat Cornyn for the Republican nomination this year; Talarico is a Democratic state lawmaker from the Austin area.
What do the latest Texas Senate polls show?
| Poll | Dates | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston (as reported by Forbes) | released Oct. 19 | 48% | 46% |
| Marist (likely voters) | Oct. 8–11 | 47% | 45% |
| Fox News (881 likely voters) | Sept. 24–28 | 51% | 49% |
Marist surveyed 1,196 Texas registered voters; its margin of error was ±4.3 points for registered voters and ±4.9 points for likely voters. Among registered voters, Talarico's lead slipped from 6 points in September to 4 points in October.
Forbes described the University of Houston survey as the second poll in a week to show Talarico ahead.
If Talarico leads, why do voters expect Paxton to win?
In the Marist poll, 53% of likely voters said they expect Paxton to win, even though more of them said they would vote for Talarico. The same poll found 51% of likely voters lean toward the Republican candidate in their congressional district, compared with 46% for the Democrat, a reminder of how Republican the state's underlying vote remains.
Independents are the key. Marist found 52% of independent likely voters backing Talarico.
How do Texans see the two candidates?
The Fox News poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, found a sharp difference in image:
- Talarico: 52% favorable, 44% unfavorable.
- Paxton: 40% favorable, 58% unfavorable.
Each candidate carries a vulnerability. Fifty-three percent said they were concerned Talarico is "too liberal," and 51% said they were concerned Paxton is "too close" to President Trump. Fox also found that about one in five voters who backed Cornyn in the Republican primary and runoff now support Talarico.
Talarico's coalition in that poll was built on Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under 35 (62%). Paxton led among white evangelicals (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and voters 65 and older (55%).
What issues are driving the race?
The economy is at the top. In the Fox poll, 68% called the cost of living "extremely important" to their vote, followed by Trump (48%) and immigration (47%). About a third said the same of data centers, an issue that has become a flashpoint in rural Texas, as we reported in our look at the data center backlash.
Marist found 43% of likely voters said their family finances had worsened over the past year, and only 18% said they had improved. Trump's approval among Texas likely voters stood at 46%, with 54% disapproving.
Talarico's campaign has also drawn national attention for comments on faith and policy, including his remarks on reparations at a town hall.
What about the Texas governor's race?
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45% among likely voters in the Marist poll, and by just 1 point among registered voters. Seventy percent of likely voters expect Abbott to win.
What happens next?
Texas offers early in-person voting in the run-up to Election Day on Tuesday, November 3; county election offices list local sites and hours. Both parties are treating the Senate seat as central to control of the chamber: Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four to win a majority. For the national picture, see our midterms state of play.
