Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in most recent Alaska polls, by 2 to 7 points depending on the survey and how ranked-choice ballots are counted. The two met in a heated final debate in Anchorage on October 15 that centered on the Iran war, energy and the state's high fuel prices.
A Peltola win would be one of the biggest upsets of the year. Alaska has not elected a Democratic senator since Mark Begich in 2008.
What do the Alaska Senate polls show?
| Poll | Dates | Peltola (D) | Sullivan (R) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage, 1,200 likely voters | Oct. 9–10 | 48.2% | 42.6% | First round |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct. 9–10 | 50.1% | 48% | Final ranked-choice round |
| Alaska Survey Research, 1,512 likely voters | Oct. 1–3 | 51% | 49% | Final round |
| NYT/Siena, voters 50 and older | reported Oct. 3 | 50% | 43% | — |
In the InsiderAdvantage poll, about 14.4% of Republicans said they would vote for Peltola, Newsweek reported. Sullivan has led some polls this year, but Peltola has led most by a few points.
Prediction markets favored Peltola as of October 12, with Polymarket at about 72% and Kalshi at about 75%. Markets reflect traders' bets, not voter surveys.
What happened at the final debate?
The debate on Thursday, October 15 in Anchorage was testy enough that one exchange drew a plea for "some decorum," The Hill reported. The main clashes:
- Iran. Peltola tied the war with Iran to higher prices for Alaskans and said Sullivan had voted for it 14 times. She said Alaskans "have had it up to here with the lies" about supporting U.S. troops.
- Energy. Sullivan argued that more Alaskan energy production would bring prices down. "My opponent, when she was in Congress, actually voted against producing more Alaskan energy," he said.
- Russian diesel. Both opposed importing Russian diesel. Sullivan called it "not a good idea," noting that he sometimes breaks with the Trump administration; Peltola called buying from a "known adversary" a "terrible" and "foolish" decision.
- Ukraine. "It's so important that we stand with Ukraine and our allies," Peltola said.
Why are prices so central in Alaska?
On debate day, Alaska's average price for regular gasoline was $4.96 a gallon, compared with $4.33 nationally, Newsweek reported. Enstar Natural Gas's president has warned that supply may fall short of demand this winter.
How are national Republicans responding?
President Trump held a rally for Sullivan in Wasilla on October 13, according to the Republican National Committee, and Vice President JD Vance campaigned with him in Fairbanks the week before. Trump carried Alaska in 2024, but Newsweek noted that his approval in the state has slipped this year.
When will we know who won?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Polls close at midnight Eastern in most of Alaska and 1 a.m. Eastern in the Aleutians. Absentee ballots arriving after Election Day and ranked-choice tabulation mean a close race could take days to call. See when polls close in every state and our midterms state of play.
