Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio's Senate special election in most recent polls, including a 48% to 42% edge in a BGSU/YouGov survey reported on October 18. In the open race for governor, Democrat Amy Acton has held a small lead over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in recent polling, though the race remains a toss-up.
Both results are striking in a state Donald Trump carried by about 11 points in 2024.
What do the Ohio Senate polls show?
| Poll | Dates | Brown (D) | Husted (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU/YouGov (as reported by Forbes) | reported Oct. 18 | 48% | 42% |
| ActiVote, 400 likely voters | Sept. 26–Oct. 18 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Marist, 1,298 registered voters | Sept. 24–27 | Brown +8 | — |
| BGSU/YouGov, 1,000 likely voters | September | 48% | 45% |
The ActiVote survey, which showed Husted narrowly ahead, had an average expected error of ±4.9 points, so its 0.4-point margin is effectively a tie. The RealClearPolitics average had Brown ahead by 3.7 points in early October, according to the Ohio Capital Journal.
Husted was appointed to the Senate in January 2025 to fill the seat JD Vance gave up to become vice president. Brown, who held Ohio's other Senate seat for 18 years, lost it to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024 and is attempting a comeback.
What do the Ohio governor polls show?
| Poll | Dates | Acton (D) | Ramaswamy (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marist, registered voters | Sept. 24–27 | Acton +6 | — |
| BGSU/YouGov, likely voters | September | 48% | 45% |
| Wedgewood, likely voters | Aug. 11–13 | 47% | 46% |
| Fox News, registered voters | Aug. 6–10 | 48% | 50% |
Libertarian Don Kissick took 4% in the September BGSU/YouGov poll. Acton and Ramaswamy are running to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor since Ted Strickland, who served from 2007 to 2011.
Cook Political Report moved the governor's race to Toss-up in July, while Sabato's Crystal Ball still rated it Likely Republican as of September, Newsweek reported.
Why is Ohio competitive this year?
The polls point to three things:
- Trump's approval. Marist found 42% of Ohioans approve of his job performance. Forty-one percent said their midterm vote would be against him, 25% said it would be in support of him, and 33% said he was not much of a factor.
- Personal finances. Forty-one percent of Ohioans told Marist they are worse off than a year ago; 19% said they are better off.
- Data centers. The Ohio Capital Journal reported that a National Republican Senatorial Committee memo called data centers "the anchor hanging around Husted's neck," amid local backlash over their electricity use and tax breaks.
Republicans counter that Democratic polling leads have faded by November in Ohio before, and many voters still expect GOP wins: in the September BGSU/YouGov poll, respondents expected Ramaswamy to win 62% to 36%.
When do Ohioans vote?
Early in-person voting began October 6. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. See our guide to when polls close in every state, and our midterms state of play for the national Senate math.
