Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina's Senate race in every recent public poll, by margins ranging from 7 to 14 points. The former two-term governor is running for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, and forecasters now rate it Likely Democrat.
A Democratic win would be a pickup for the party, which needs a net gain of four seats to take the Senate majority.
What do the latest North Carolina Senate polls show?
| Poll | Dates | Cooper (D) | Whatley (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WRAL/WSOC (SurveyUSA), likely voters | Oct. 7–11 | 54% | 40% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research, 810 likely voters | Sept. 30–Oct. 3 | 50% | 43% |
| Catawba College | released Sept. 30 | Cooper +12 | — |
| Fox News, 1,005 registered voters | July 23–27 | 53% | 44% |
The WRAL/WSOC survey interviewed 900 North Carolinians, including 643 who had already voted by mail or said they were likely to vote, with a 5-point credibility interval. The ECU poll had a ±4-point credibility interval; its seven-point margin was unchanged from the previous month, while undecided voters fell from 14% to 6%.
Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, Forbes reported.
Why hasn't the race tightened?
Political scientists expected Whatley to gain ground as Republican voters came home late in the race. "I'm not sure that we're seeing that at this point," Catawba College's Michael Bitzer told WRAL.
Several factors show up in the data:
- Trump's standing. Only 37% of likely voters approved of the president's job performance in the WRAL/WSOC poll, and 60% disapproved. Trump won the state with 51% in 2024. At a rally in Gastonia, he told supporters: "Pretend I'm on the ticket. Because essentially, I am."
- Image. ECU found Cooper viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 43%, while Whatley was at 31% favorable and 43% unfavorable.
- Independents. Cooper led independents 52% to 36% in the ECU poll.
- Money. WRAL reported that Whatley recently stopped running TV ads and that a major national conservative group pulled millions in planned spending.
What are the candidates running on?
Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, has campaigned on advancing Trump's agenda and has defended the president's tariffs and the war in Iran.
Cooper has called for ending both and says he would have opposed the 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," as Tillis did, citing its more than $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts. Whatley strongly supports the law.
Voters' priorities favor an economic message. In the ECU poll, 55% named the economy and cost of living as their top issue, followed by border security and immigration (11%), the Iran conflict and foreign policy (8%), and health care affordability and crime (6% each).
Where are the gaps among voters?
The ECU poll shows familiar divides:
| Group | Cooper | Whatley |
|---|---|---|
| Women | 54% | 37% |
| Men | 44% | 49% |
| Four-year college degree | 58% | 35% |
| No four-year degree | 44% | 48% |
| Under 65 | 51% | 40% |
| 65 and older | 45% | 51% |
When do North Carolinians vote?
Early voting is under way, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern — see our guide to when polls close in every state. For the national picture, see our midterms state of play.
