Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu in New Hampshire's open Senate race, 51% to 44% in a St. Anselm College poll reported October 7. Cook Political Report has moved the race from Toss-up to Lean Democrat, Forbes reported, in a contest Republicans once saw as one of their best pickup chances.
The seat opened when Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen decided not to seek a fourth term. It is the state's first open Senate race since 2010.
What do the New Hampshire Senate polls show?
| Poll | Dates | Pappas (D) | Sununu (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Anselm College | reported Oct. 7 | 51% | 44% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Sept. 23–25 | 46% | 42% |
| University of New Hampshire | Sept. 17–21 | 50% | 42% |
| NYT/Siena | Sept. 15–22 | 50% | 45% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Sept. 16–17 | 48% | 40% |
| co/efficient (R) | Sept. 9–11 | 46% | 46% |
In the St. Anselm poll, 4% were unsure or backed a third-party candidate. The polling average in late September had Pappas ahead by about 6 points.
Who are the candidates?
Chris Pappas has represented New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District since 2019. He won the Democratic primary on September 8 with 65% of the vote.
John E. Sununu served one Senate term, from 2003 to 2009, before losing to Shaheen in 2008. He is the brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu. He beat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown in the Republican primary with about 68%.
Why did Republicans see an opening?
New Hampshire is closely divided. Republicans hold the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature, and Kamala Harris carried the state by only about 3 points in 2024. Sununu is a familiar name from one of New Hampshire's best-known political families.
But Republicans have not won a Senate race in the state since 2010, and the national environment has turned against the party in power. Forbes noted that President Trump's approval stands near record lows in national averages.
How do the campaigns compare on money?
| Pappas | Sununu | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised (as of Aug. 19) | about $15.4 million | about $4.1 million |
| Cash on hand | about $4.3 million | about $3.0 million |
Figures from Federal Election Commission filings.
How do New Hampshire voters cast ballots?
New Hampshire is one of three states that do not offer early in-person voting to all voters; eligible voters can request an absentee ballot. Some polling places close at 7 p.m., and all close by 8 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, November 3. See our explainers on how early voting works and when polls close in every state.
For how New Hampshire fits into the fight for the Senate majority, see our midterms state of play.
