President Trump is rallying in Park City, Kansas, on Monday for Sen. Roger Marshall, whose re-election race against Democrat Adam Hamilton has become a genuine toss-up. Polling averages in mid-October put Hamilton ahead by less than a point, in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1932.
The rally at Heartland Credit Union Arena is a sign of how seriously Republicans take the threat. Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024.
What do the Kansas Senate polls show?
| Poll | Dates | Hamilton (D) | Marshall (R) | Graham (L) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Oct. 9–10 | 48% | 47% | — |
| GBAO (D) | Sept. 30–Oct. 4 | 46% | 41% | 7% |
| YouGov | Sept. 24–Oct. 4 | 48% | 45% | — |
| Trafalgar (R) | Sept. 29–Oct. 1 | 44% | 44% | 2% |
| NYT/Siena | Sept. 22–30 | 45% | 45% | 5% |
| Emerson | Sept. 15–16 | 45% | 43% | 4% |
The polling average in mid-October was Hamilton 46.2%, Marshall 45.5%. Forecasters are split: Cook Political Report, The Economist and Silver Bulletin rate the race a Toss-up, while CBS News, Fox News, Sabato's Crystal Ball and others rate it Lean Republican, and Inside Elections rates it Likely Republican.
Who is Adam Hamilton?
Hamilton is the founding senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, which Forbes describes as the largest United Methodist congregation in the country. He is a former registered Republican who first explored an independent run before announcing as a Democrat on April 30, 2026.
His backers cross party lines. A "Republicans for Hamilton" coalition includes more than 100 Republicans, among them former Govs. Bill Graves and Mike Hayden, Forbes reported. Arch Naramore, who lost the Republican primary to Marshall, has endorsed him. So have Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly and former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.
Why is a Republican seat in Kansas at risk?
Forbes points to the farm economy:
- Tariffs. Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans have pushed buyers to other suppliers.
- Fuel. Higher prices tied to the Iran war have raised the cost of planting, harvesting and hauling.
- Equipment. Tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum have pushed up machinery prices.
- Beef. An August move to lift tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings angered the cattle industry. Marshall said he was "frustrated" by the plan.
Marshall has also criticized some tariffs. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican Senate super PAC, has reserved about $8 million in ads for him over the final month, according to AdImpact data cited by Forbes.
When and where is the Trump rally?
The rally is at Heartland Credit Union Arena in Park City, just north of Wichita, on Monday, October 19. The event was set to begin at 4:30 p.m., with Trump expected to speak at 6 p.m. local time, local station KOFO reported. Drivers should expect road closures near the arena.
Trump has made similar late stops for Republicans in other tight races, including a rally for Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska last week — see our Alaska Senate race report.
What's at stake?
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four to win the majority. A loss in Kansas would make that math far easier for Democrats. For the full picture, see our midterms state of play.
Most of Kansas closes polls at 8 p.m. Eastern; a handful of western counties in the Mountain time zone close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
