Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 48% to 45% among likely voters in Iowa's open Senate race, according to a Marist poll released October 15. In the race for governor, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 52% to 45%.
Both results are within or near the poll's margin of error, but they put two Democrats ahead in a state that has trended firmly Republican for a decade.
What does the new Iowa poll show?
Marist surveyed 1,100 Iowa registered voters from October 8 to 11 by phone, text and online. The margin of error is ±4.5 points for registered voters and ±6.6 points for likely voters.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | Turek 48% | Hinson 45% | Likely voters |
| U.S. Senate | Turek +7 | — | Registered voters |
| Governor | Sand 52% | Lahn 45% | Likely voters |
| Governor | Sand +11 | — | Registered voters |
| Generic House ballot | 47% | Republican 50% | Likely voters |
An earlier Fox News poll, taken June 23 to 27, had Turek ahead 50% to 46% among registered voters.
Why do voters still expect Hinson to win?
Even while backing Turek, Iowans are skeptical he can win. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters expect Hinson to be elected. In the governor's race, expectations are split: 50% think Sand will win and 45% think Lahn will.
The generic ballot shows why. Republicans lead 50% to 47% among likely voters on the question of which party's candidate they will support for the House, and 63% expect the Republican in their own district to win. Turek and Sand are running ahead of their party.
Who is driving the Democratic lead?
Independents. Among independent likely voters:
- Senate: Turek 51%, Hinson 31%
- Governor: Sand 67%, Lahn 26%
Marist also found a 29-point gender gap in the Senate race.
How is Trump affecting the race?
Trump's approval among Iowa likely voters is 44%, with 53% disapproving. Asked about the role he plays in their congressional vote, 44% said he is not much of a factor, more than one in three said their vote is against him, and 21% said it is for him.
The economy is a drag on the party in power. Forty-two percent of likely voters said their personal finances got worse over the past year; 36% said they stayed about the same and 20% said they improved.
Why does Iowa matter for Senate control?
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four to win the majority. An open Republican seat in Iowa was not on most early lists of Democratic targets, so a competitive race there widens the map. Forbes now lists it among the closest Senate contests in the country, alongside races in Texas, Ohio, Maine and Kansas.
For more on the national picture, see our midterms state of play. Iowa polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, November 3 — see when polls close in every state.
