Democrat Troy Jackson holds a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins in most recent Maine polls, by margins of zero to four points, after the two met for their fourth and final debate on October 15. With every margin inside the error range, Maine's Senate race is one of the closest in the country two weeks before Election Day.
Collins has survived tough races before. In 2020 she won re-election despite trailing in most public polls.
What do the latest Maine Senate polls show?
| Poll | Dates | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University (as reported by Forbes) | released Oct. 14 | 49% | 47% |
| Marist, 1,505 registered voters | Oct. 1–4 | 51% | 47% |
| Washington Post–Schar School, 800 likely voters | Sept. 30–Oct. 5 | 50% | 46% |
| CBS News/YouGov, 1,136 likely voters | Sept. 23–Oct. 1 | 50% | 50% |
The Washington Post–Schar School poll's margin of error was ±3.6 points, about equal to Jackson's lead, the Portland Press Herald noted. A New York Times/Press Herald/Siena poll about two weeks earlier showed Collins narrowly ahead.
Prediction markets have moved toward Collins in the past month. On October 15, Kalshi gave Jackson a 57% chance and Polymarket 60%, down from 66% and 71% a month earlier, Newsweek reported. Markets are not polls and reflect traders' bets.
What happened in the final debate?
Collins and Jackson met for the fourth and final time on Thursday, October 15. The main exchanges:
- Trump and bipartisanship. Jackson argued that Collins sides with Trump when it matters most. Collins cited her bipartisan record and her votes against some Trump nominees.
- Campaign money. Collins accused Jackson of breaking a pledge to avoid billionaire and corporate-backed money. Jackson denied coordinating with outside groups and defended a delayed campaign finance filing.
- Immigration enforcement. Collins proposed more oversight of ICE and limits on enforcement at sensitive locations. Jackson has called for dismantling the agency.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Jackson said he would vote to impeach the health secretary if it reached the Senate but called it a low priority. Collins said she disagrees with Kennedy on vaccines but backs his other initiatives.
- The Supreme Court. Jackson backed ethics reform, term limits and possibly expanding the court. Collins opposed expansion.
- Democracy and dark money. Jackson warned of democratic backsliding. Collins said donors to outside groups should be disclosed and that democracy would "be just fine."
How do Mainers see Collins after 30 years?
The Washington Post–Schar School poll captured the tension in her campaign. Fifty-two percent said Collins's three decades in the Senate were a bad thing, and 58% said she sides with Trump too often. But Collins led Jackson by 24 points on bringing federal money to Maine and on bipartisanship.
Jackson led independents 53% to 40% in that poll, and won 9% of Republicans, while Collins won 6% of Democrats. Suffolk found a different picture among independents, with Collins ahead 47% to 44%.
The poll was taken after a ProPublica report that the FBI had investigated whether Collins took part in a pay-to-play scheme, the Press Herald reported. Collins denies wrongdoing.
What else is on the Maine ballot?
The same Post–Schar School poll found Democrat Hannah Pingree leading the governor's race with 49%, Republican Bobby Charles at 36% and independent Rick Bennett at 11%.
For how Jackson became the nominee, see our report on the Democratic convention. Maine polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, November 3 — see when polls close in every state.
