Two weeks before Election Day, Georgia's Senate race has settled into a clear shape: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Republican Rep. Mike Collins in every recent public poll, early voting has opened at a record pace, and both parties are adjusting how much money they put into the state.
Collins calls it "the number one race in the country." Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate, according to Fox News, so holding Ossoff's seat is central to their hopes. Trump carried Georgia in 2024.
The polls
The most recent public polls all show Ossoff ahead:
| Poll | Dates | Ossoff | Collins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (1,101 likely voters) | Oct 7–9 | 51% | 43% |
| Wedgewood (600 likely voters) | Oct 2–3 | 55% | 45% |
| Big Data Poll (678 likely voters) | Sept 21–23 | 52% | 41% |
| Quantus Insights (645 likely voters) | Sept 14–16 | 48% | 44% |
Figures as reported by Newsweek.
Cook Political Report has moved the race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Polls have been wrong in Georgia before, and turnout in a midterm is hard to model.
What each side is running on
Ossoff is running against President Trump, the cost of living and the Iran war. He calls Collins a "puppet" of the president and attacks his support for Trump's tariffs and the war. "Congressman Mike Collins is a Trump puppet who has voted seven times for the disastrous Iran war," he said in September.
Collins is running against Ossoff's record. He says Ossoff has voted "to make our life less safe, more expensive and worse off," accuses him of backing the Laken Riley Act only when it became politically convenient, and has hammered him over donations from LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, whom he mentioned at least ten times in their last debate.
In a Fox News poll of Georgia voters in June, 40% named inflation as the issue that would matter most to their Senate vote, far ahead of any other.
The debate
The candidates met for the second and likely final time on Tuesday, October 13, at Georgia Public Broadcasting in Atlanta, in the Atlanta Press Club's Loudermilk-Young series. It was heated enough that the microphones were muted during one exchange.
- On Iran, Collins defended the war: "They were this close to getting a nuclear weapon." Ossoff said administration officials "were lying" about Iran.
- On immigration, Collins blamed Ossoff for the death of Laken Riley. "You're lying about a young woman's death because your campaign is in collapse," Ossoff replied. He said he did not regret voting for the Laken Riley Act — "If you're in the United States illegally and you commit a crime, you've got to leave" — but called parts of it overbroad.
- On ethics, Ossoff pressed Collins over an ethics investigation into his office and antisemitic posts by his son-in-law. Collins called the investigation a "nothingburger" and called Ossoff a "coward who lies about his accomplishments."
- On abortion, Ossoff said Collins had previously backed a ban "without exception." Collins said he supports Georgia's current law, which allows abortion in some cases.
- On 2028, Ossoff said he would not run for president.
Record early voting
Early voting opened the same day with a record first day: more than 188,600 in-person ballots, plus about 10,000 absentee ballots, according to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger's office. On the first day in 2022, about 135,000 Georgians voted in person.
"This record-breaking turnout proves that voters have confidence in the integrity of our elections," Raffensperger said.
The money
Ossoff raised about $33 million in the third quarter and had about $26 million on hand, the Georgia Recorder reported. Collins reported about $2.7 million and just over $1.1 million on hand.
Outside money has narrowed some of that gap. The Republican Senate Leadership Fund and its affiliated nonprofit had spent $25.9 million in Georgia by late September, and the Collins campaign says another $17.3 million in TV time is reserved. Senate Majority Leader John Thune campaigned with Collins in Atlanta in September: "I wouldn't be here if I didn't think that we could win the state of Georgia."
On the Democratic side, Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, dropped a week of planned Georgia advertising this month, saying it was confident in Ossoff's position. "Sen. Ossoff continues to have a competitive lead in the polls," spokesperson Lauren French said. The Collins campaign denies reports that national Republicans are shifting money out of the state.
What to watch
Early vote totals, which the Secretary of State's office publishes daily.
Where the outside money goes in the final two weeks, a signal of where each party thinks the race stands.
Trump. Whether he campaigns in Georgia, and whether that helps Collins with Republicans or helps Ossoff with swing voters.
Published Sunday, October 18, 2026. Poll figures are as reported by Newsweek and Fox News; debate quotes are from the Georgia Recorder and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution; fundraising and spending figures are from the Georgia Recorder and the campaigns. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
