Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday, October 25, is effectively a coin toss. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by just one to two points in the latest polls, all within the margin of error.
A month ago Lula was widely expected to win comfortably, Al Jazeera reported. Then Bolsonaro, the eldest son of the jailed former president, finished first in the October 4 first round.
What do the latest polls say?
| Pollster | Flávio Bolsonaro | Lula |
|---|---|---|
| CNT/MDA | 46.8% | 45.9% |
| Quaest | 46% | 44% |
| Datafolha | 47% | 45% |
Datafolha had Bolsonaro at 49% a week earlier, so his lead in that poll has narrowed.
How did the first round go?
| Candidate | Party | Share | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | PL | 47.03% | 56,104,503 |
| Lula da Silva | PT | 45.16% | 53,879,538 |
| Augusto Cury | Avante | 2.89% | — |
| Renan Santos | Mission | 2.24% | — |
| Ronaldo Caiado | PSD | 2.18% | — |
Turnout was 78.92%. The votes of the eliminated candidates, about 8% combined, could decide Sunday's result.
Who are the two candidates?
Flávio Bolsonaro has been a senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019 and is running for the Liberal Party. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, is barred from office until 2030 and is serving a 27-year sentence over the plot to overturn the 2022 election. Read our profile of Flávio Bolsonaro.
Lula, 80, won the presidency in 2002, 2006 and 2022 and is seeking a fourth term.
What is each side promising?
Bolsonaro has pledged a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking and changes to taxes tied to government programmes.
Lula is leaning on social policy. Congress recently approved an amendment giving workers two paid days off a week instead of one, a key promise of his.
The race is also being watched across Latin America, which has shifted sharply to the right, and in Washington. Trump, Argentina's Javier Milei and others have expressed support for Bolsonaro.
The fight over Meta
Lula's campaign has accused Meta of restricting its accounts. A Brazilian court ordered the company to treat both candidates equally, and Meta denied favouring Bolsonaro, according to Anadolu Agency.
What to watch this week
The final debate and last polls. With the race this close, late movement among undecided and centrist voters matters most.
The eliminated candidates. Endorsements from Caiado, Cury and others could tip the balance.
Election night. Brazil's electronic voting usually produces a clear result within hours of polls closing.
