Albertans are voting today, Monday, October 19, on whether their province should remain in Canada or start a legal process toward a binding referendum on separation. Every published poll shows a clear majority for staying. Polls close at 8 p.m. Mountain Time, and full results could take up to 48 hours.
The vote is non-binding. Even a win for the separation option would not take Alberta out of Canada. It would only open the door to a second, binding vote.
What exactly is on the ballot?
The question asks whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada, or whether the provincial government should "commence the legal process" toward a binding provincial referendum on separating.
It is one of ten questions on Monday's ballot. Others cover immigration and constitutional reform, according to CTV News.
What do the polls show?
| Poll | Remain in Canada | Start separation process | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus (Sept. 4–7) | 64% | 24% | 9% |
| Range of all published polls | 60%–74% | 19%–35% | — |
Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum but opposes independence, recently cited a poll showing 22% support for separation, the Associated Press reported.
When will we know the result?
According to Elections Alberta, as reported by CTV News:
- 1,400+ polling stations are open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. Anyone in line at 8 p.m. can still vote.
- Hand-counting of advance and special ballots starts at 5 p.m.
- The separation question is counted first.
- The agency aims to publish all results within 48 hours.
Turnout looks high. About 1.02 million ballots were cast before election day, roughly a third of the province's three million eligible voters. In the whole 2023 provincial election, 1.7 million people voted.
Could Alberta actually leave Canada?
Not quickly, and not on its own. Canada's Constitution has no provision for unilateral secession. Under the framework of the federal Clarity Act, a province would need a clear question, a clear majority, negotiations and a constitutional amendment.
Treaty rights matter too. In May an Alberta court threw out a separatist petition because organisers had not properly consulted Indigenous peoples, whose treaties predate the province.
Who is on each side?
For leaving: Let Alberta Decide and other separatist groups. The movement draws on long-running Western alienation over energy policy and federal power, and has also drawn in activists who opposed COVID-19 vaccine mandates, the AP reported.
Against: Prime Minister Mark Carney, who used a Thanksgiving message last week to warn of a "long and uncertain process" at a dangerous time for the country. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and former premiers Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley are also campaigning against separation.
What the separatists are saying
At a rally outside the legislature in Edmonton on Saturday, Keith Wilson, co-chair of Let Alberta Decide, appeared to prepare supporters for a loss.
"Regardless of what happens on Monday, we've already won," he said, arguing the movement had persuaded hundreds of thousands of Albertans that independence is legally possible. Asked about Kenney's suggestion that separatists should quit if they fail to win a majority, Wilson said: "That's not happening."
The vote comes days after a deadly fire at a military base in the province. Read our coverage of the CFB Wainwright fire.
What to watch tonight
The margin. A remain win is widely expected. How large it is will shape whether the movement fades or regroups.
Turnout. Record early voting suggests a high turnout, which both sides will claim as a mandate.
Smith's next move. The premier has said she opposes independence. What she does with the result, especially if the separation option does better than polls suggest, will be closely watched in Ottawa.
