Kimi Antonelli can clinch the 2026 Formula 1 world championship at the United States Grand Prix in Austin on Sunday, October 25, but he needs help. The 20-year-old Mercedes driver leads teammate George Russell by 102 points, with 150 still available. If the calendar stays as scheduled, Antonelli has to win in Texas, with Russell ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton fifth or lower, according to ESPN's analysis.
What are the F1 standings before Austin?
| Pos. | Driver | Team | Points | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 340 | — |
| 2 | George Russell | Mercedes | 238 | -102 |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 229 | -111 |
| 4 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 221 | -119 |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 215 | -125 |
| 6 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 201 | -139 |
Standings per ESPN. Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris are still in contention mathematically. ESPN notes that Leclerc's and Norris's slim chances would disappear if the Middle East races are canceled.
What does Antonelli need to win the title in Austin?
There are two scenarios.
If all six remaining races go ahead (150 points available):
- Antonelli must win in Austin.
- Russell must finish ninth or lower.
- Hamilton must finish fifth or lower.
That would put Antonelli 125 points ahead with 125 remaining. Even if Russell then won every race, Antonelli would take the title on countback, nine wins to three.
If Qatar and Abu Dhabi are replaced by one race at Imola (125 points available):
Antonelli only needs a 100-point lead after Austin. Some of the combinations ESPN lists:
| Antonelli finishes | He's champion if... |
|---|---|
| 1st | Nothing else is needed |
| 2nd | Russell doesn't win |
| 3rd | Russell is off the podium |
| 4th | Russell finishes behind him and Hamilton doesn't win |
| Doesn't score | Russell 9th or lower, Hamilton 5th or lower, Verstappen doesn't win |
Why are the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races in doubt?
The Qatar (Nov. 29) and Abu Dhabi (Dec. 6) Grands Prix are still on the calendar. ESPN reports that escalation in the war between the United States and Iran could force both to be canceled. F1 has a contingency plan to hold a single round at Imola instead, and sources told ESPN the sport is still planning on a Middle East finale.
When is the US Grand Prix, and how do I watch?
| Session | UTC/GMT | Austin (CT) | Eastern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Practice 1 | Fri 17:30 | 12:30 p.m. | 1:30 p.m. |
| Practice 2 | Fri 21:00 | 4:00 p.m. | 5:00 p.m. |
| Practice 3 | Sat 17:30 | 12:30 p.m. | 1:30 p.m. |
| Qualifying | Sat 21:00 | 4:00 p.m. | 5:00 p.m. |
| Race | Sun 20:00 | 3:00 p.m. | 4:00 p.m. |
- U.S.: every session streams on Apple TV, through its new F1 channel.
- UK: Sky Sports F1 and Sky Sports Main Event; highlights on Channel 4.
Who are the favorites at COTA?
Max Verstappen won the last race, in Singapore, and has four US GP wins at COTA. Rivals have called Red Bull "the team to beat" for the rest of the year, though the team has played that down. Hamilton holds the record with six US Grand Prix wins, five of them at COTA. Antonelli is chasing his ninth win of the season.
ESPN reports that Mercedes ran different upgrade specifications on its two cars in Singapore: Antonelli had the new package, and Russell raced the older one.
