Holiday sales are expected to top $1 trillion for the first time this year. The National Retail Federation forecasts sales in November and December will rise 4.2% to about $1.013 trillion, up from $972 billion in 2025.
There's a catch. The NRF says about half of that growth comes from higher prices, not people buying more. Deloitte, measuring a longer season, forecasts growth of 4% to 4.8%.
2026 holiday sales forecasts compared
| Forecaster | Growth | Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRF | +4.2% | $1.013 trillion | Nov. 1 – Dec. 31 |
| Deloitte | +4.0% to +4.8% | $1.70–$1.71 trillion | Nov. – Jan. |
| Bain & Company | +4.5% | — | Holiday season |
| Deloitte, e-commerce only | +7.5% to +8.4% | $316.1–$318.9 billion | Nov. – Jan. |
NRF excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants. Deloitte's totals use Census Bureau retail data excluding autos and gasoline.
Why are holiday sales expected to rise?
Shoppers keep spending. The NRF calls it "a consumer economy that remains remarkably resilient." Bank executives said the same in their earnings calls last week.
Incomes are growing. Deloitte projects disposable personal income will rise 4.5% to 5.2% over the season. Economist Akrur Barua called that "an important input" to the forecast.
Prices are higher. The NRF expects core goods inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025. Higher diesel and memory-chip costs are raising shipping and electronics prices. Overall inflation hit 3.7% in September. See our CPI breakdown.
Who is doing the spending?
The NRF describes a K-shaped season:
- Higher-income households are driving much of the growth. In some sectors, the top 10% of spenders account for as much as 70% of sales.
- Lower-income shoppers are mostly spending more than a year ago, but gas prices, still above $4 a gallon nationally, hit them harder.
Will retailers hire more workers?
Slightly fewer, or about the same. The NRF expects 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires, compared with about 356,000 last year. It described retailers' approach as cautious.
That fits a cooling job market. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, and several big companies are cutting staff this month.
Key holiday shopping dates 2026
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Sunday, Nov. 1 | NRF holiday season count begins |
| Thursday, Nov. 26 | Thanksgiving |
| Friday, Nov. 27 | Black Friday |
| Monday, Nov. 30 | Cyber Monday |
| Thursday, Dec. 31 | NRF holiday season count ends |
How to save this holiday season
- Compare prices early. Deloitte expects heavy use of comparison shopping and promotions.
- Watch electronics prices, which the NRF says are under pressure from higher memory-chip costs.
- Use price tracking and price-matching where retailers offer it.
- Set a budget before Black Friday. Credit card interest is rising as the Fed raises rates. See what a Fed hike means for your cards.
What to watch
AI shopping tools and agents are expected to play a bigger role this year, the NRF said. October's retail sales and inflation reports, due in November, will give the first hard read on whether the forecasts hold.
Published Monday, October 19, 2026. Forecasts are from the NRF, Deloitte and Bain & Company as reported by Retail TouchPoints and Chain Store Age.
